is the online magazine of BSI Group, highlighting the vital role that standards play in today's business environment by helping organizations improve quality, save money, reduce risk and be more sustainable. Features include interviews with leading business figures, as well as news on the latest developments in management systems, standards, testing, healthcare and certification.
Tomorrow's world
23 Jul 2007
Topics: Emerging technology, Nanotechnology, Stem cell
For all the talk of "emerging technology", it's hard to point out practical examples of them being put to use - or is it? BT's Ian Pearson explains how tomorrow's technology is fast becoming today's reality. John Coutts reports.
A child born today will live to be 130. He can look forward to adult life in a world where computers will read his mind. Disease will be a distant memory for him thanks to advances in medical technology. And before he does eventually die, he'll be able to download his mind to an android. Science fiction? Not necessarily.
"Now's a good time to be born," muses futurologist Ian Pearson. "By the time today's newborn babies are 16, they'll be playing with computers that are smarter than they are. Computers will be starting to work directly with your brain as early as 2030. I don't think any of that is a pipe dream - we're just waiting for the technology to roll out."
Predicting the future is an uncertain business. But for Ian Pearson it's all in a day's work: charting the shape of things to come is his profession. He's Britain's leading futurologist, a corporate seer with a reputation for getting it right. For the last 15 years, he's kept track of the opportunities and threats posed by emerging technologies for BT, Britain's leading communications business.
"The key acronym in this one is NBIC - nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science," says Pearson. "All four of these areas are charging ahead independently, but they're also converging. You can already link your nervous system to use a wheelchair or to put the kettle on. We don't believe that the biological limits of your brain are necessarily the fundamental limits."
That's all well and good, but what exactly are emerging technologies - and where are they taking us?
A starter for 200 billion
Working at a scale so small that measurements are made in billionths of a metre, nanotechnology involves the study and manipulation of matter at the molecular level. Punctuation provides an example of the relative scale: you could fit 200 billion nanometre particles into the full stop at the end of this sentence. Nanoscale particles are invisible to conventional microscopes and it's only in the last two decades that equipment capable of viewing and manipulating nanoscale matter has been developed.
Nanotechnology exploits the dramatic difference in the way materials behave at a very small scale. Some normally inert elements, such as gold, become catalysts. Opaque elements, such as copper, become transparent. In addition, the ratio of surface area to volume is vastly increased at the nanoscale.
The ability to tailor tiny particles for specific jobs has huge implications. Nano-materials can already be found in the catalytic converters used to clean up vehicle emissions. In medicine, quantum dots - nano-crystals capable of emitting a spectrum of bright colours, which are related only to the size of the "dot" - are used to locate and identify specific cells. Elsewhere, nanotechnology is used in everything from hard drives to hip replacements. But experts believe that current technology is just scratching the surface.
"Nanotechnology will be the next disruptive technology. Indeed, it is already having a major impact in many areas, including electronics, textiles and pharmaceuticals," says Annie Cassidy, BSI British Standards' committee manager responsible for biometric and nanotechnology standards development [see box]. "The last thing was the World Wide Web. Nanotechnology has the potential to change everything; it is an enabling technology applicable everywhere."
Cancer-tagging technology, tumour-seeking "nano-bullets", super-efficient photovoltaic solar panels, filtration materials for purifying polluted water, improved refrigeration technology and new ultra high-strength materials could be part of the future nanotechnology equation.
"I think the next big development for nanotech is moving from chemical to mechanical engineering," says Pearson. "Things like microsensors, which are already working well at the microtechnology level, will move down to the nanotechnology level and be able to sense far more things. It won't just be clever coatings on your car anymore."
The current total market value for products incorporating nanotechnology, excluding semiconductors, is just over $80bn. Analysts believe this market will grow to between $1trn-$3trn within a decade, with the strongest growth in the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors.
Stem'll fix it
Regenerative medicine is another field where big strides are being made at a small scale. It's one of the most promising areas of emerging medical science and, like nanotechnology, its potential is revolutionary. Pioneering and sometimes controversial, cell-based therapies focus on the repair and regeneration of tissues and cells. Stem cell research and gene therapy are also part of the equation.
Regenerative techniques are transforming the sort of treatments doctors can offer. Skin and cartilage can now be grown in the lab. Corneal epithelial cells found in the eye can be isolated and cultured, which means that some types of blindness can be cured. Gene therapy has been used since 1990 and bone marrow transplants have been carried out since the early seventies.
Regenerative treatments are also being considered for heart failure, diabetes, Parkinson's disease, spinal cord injuries, muscle damage, Alzheimer's and cancer. It's predicted that the European market for regenerative medicine products will be worth $15bn by 2010. At the moment, though, the European regulatory position is not yet established and getting products to market takes time.
As well as improving the quality of life, regenerative medicine could have far-reaching economic benefits. In the US, for example, the government has predicted that the proportion of GDP spent on healthcare could nearly double from the present level of 13 per cent to 25 per cent by 2040. Much of this projected rise reflects the anticipated cost of providing ongoing treatments for diseases associated with tissue-failure in the elderly.
Because regenerative medicine has the potential to cure diseases and rebuild worn out organs - rather than just treating symptoms - it holds out the prospect of eliminating many of the long-term costs associated with the treatment of chronic illnesses, currently based on expensive drug therapies and transplants.
What sort of developments are likely in the short term? "The scope of regenerative medicine is hard to define currently," says Simon Alcock, BSI British Standards' committee manager responsible for healthcare strategy and regenerative medicine standards development. "The application of stem cells for in vitro diagnostic tests is one key area in the short term. Another area is bioaesthetics - the application of stem cells for cosmetics and aesthetic surgery. But injecting stem cells into your body seems some way off."
In the longer term, intelligent treatments for disease could become increasingly important: "What we might see is the development of smart drugs - smart in the sense that they wander around your body and are capable of latching on to specific organs," suggests BT's Pearson. "It would allow localized chemotherapy. It means you could persuade smart drugs to kill tagged material and leave everything else intact."
Developments in the field of medical devices - which include everything from heart implants to condoms - are also playing an increasingly important part in treating disease and improving the quality of life. The market for such products is growing at 10 per cent every year and is currently worth about $400bn annually.
BSI Product Services' healthcare division provides conformity assessments to ensure that new medical devices are up to standard, so it's in a unique position to monitor emerging trends in medical device technology.
"There's a challenge in terms of how new materials interact with existing ones and with the body," says Bernard Sweeney, general manager, BSI Product Services Healthcare. "The other challenge is how pharmaceuticals, which are now incorporated into drug devices, affect the outcomes - and what sort of clinical outcomes you are expecting."
Adaptation of existing products is an increasingly important characteristic of the medical device equation. Nanotechnology is helping in this added-value transformation. Stents - small metal tubes that are inserted into blocked arteries to hold them open - provide an example. Originally developed as simple arterial props, they can now be coated with drugs that further reduce the risk of the artery becoming clogged.
And with the development of telemedicine and remote-control surgery, the way devices are implanted is changing too.
"The question with medical products is how far the product is a medical device and how far it's not," says Sweeney. "The use of computers is evolving. They're going to be used a lot more for placing products precisely in the body and it's already happening."
The convergence of biotechnology and electronics will transform medical devices, Pearson suggests.
"There's no reason why there shouldn't be constant diagnostics going on in your body - and proactive interventions - via a smart pacemaker," he says. The idea of integrating electronics with the skin to create "active skin" also has huge potential - and it could be just a decade away. "If you had diabetes, we could monitor your insulin level and provide exactly the right amount in your bloodstream all the time. You'd never have to have an injection."
Facing up to security
The technology of getting up close and personal is not restricted to the medical world. Biometrics - the technology of measuring a person's biological or behavioural characteristics - is increasingly being used to verify that a person is who he or she claims to be.
The term biometrics, used in this sense, is relatively new, but the idea of exploiting human uniqueness to establish identity in a scientific way is not: fingerprinting, the grandfather of biometric techniques, was first used to secure a conviction more than a century ago.
Criminal justice remains a key market for biometrics, but advances in technology mean that biometric approaches are now deployed to prevent crimes or transgressions happening in the first place. Applications that require the validation of identity, whether for border controls, bank transactions or borrowing library books, can all make use of biometric technologies.
The fingerprint remains a significant source of biometric data, but the list of other unique human characteristics that are measured is growing. These include hand geometry and vein patterns, face recognition and the characteristics of the eye (iris recognition, for example), handwriting, keystroke dynamics and speech characteristics. Even body odour, the way you walk, and heartbeat signals can be used.
Biometrics is not blue-sky tech in search of applications: existing demand for specific security applications is driving the market. Many of the building blocks of modern biometric systems - which include sensors, measurement systems and comparative algorithms - have been around for a while.
"A lot of biometric technologies are quite well established," says BSI's Cassidy. "But many more are now being developed. If we think something will be beneficial to UK industry - speaker recognition, for example - we will propose that it be standardized."
What makes this technology potentially revolutionary are not so much the individual technological elements, but the way they can be put together. The big challenges for biometrics are at the broader end of the spectrum and include questions over the compatibility of systems and concerns about privacy.
Biometric technology has a proven track record. In addition to a history of use in criminal justice and registration of asylum seekers, the technologies are now being used to fast-track customs and immigration, for access control and for monitoring time and attendance. In Japan, a number of banks use systems that read vein patterns to authenticate ATM transactions.
But it's government demand that is really fuelling the market. Fears about security, particularly post-9/11, have accelerated the move towards biometric passports and identity documents. The idea of deploying biometrics as a hi-tech portcullis is fuelling political interest and demand is growing. The market for biometric technologies, currently worth some $3bn, is expected to double by 2011.
Whatever uncertainties the future may hold, one thing's for certain: like it or not, ignoring technological change is not an option.
As Pearson says, "Once the genie's out of the bottle, you can't put it back again."
CASE STUDY: The stem cell challenge
Propelling new technologies from pipe dreams to real world applications requires investment - it doesn't just happen by itself. For businesses that invest in emerging medical technologies, such as cell-based therapies, standards chart a path through the regulatory maze and help to cut risk.
Cell-based therapies, including stem cell research, are part of regenerative medicine and they have the potential to combat everything from heart disease to HIV/AIDS. Paradoxically, though, the absence of regulation can create its own barriers: currently, no EU Directives deal specifically with cell-based therapies.
Published in November 2006 and commissioned by the DTI, PAS 83
For more information:www.bsi-global.com
CASE STUDY: Nanotechnology road map
Regulations and standards governing nanotechnology are thin on the ground, but that's changing. Working with representatives from across industry and backed by government funding, BSI is playing a leading international role in formulating ground rules and guidance for this emerging technology. In the absence of regulations, BSI's work in the nanotechnology field is helping to limit risk for businesses and consumers - starting with the basics.
"With nanotechnology, it's fundamental that we all start using the same terminology. Out of the nine documents we're developing in the UK, six are terminology documents," says BSI's Annie Cassidy. "The aim is to provide industry and consumers with appropriate technical information to enable them to make informed choices and to reduce the need for regulation of nanotechnologies."
Published in 2005 and commissioned by the government's Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), Publicly Available Specification (PAS) 71
For more information:www.bsi-global.com/july07nano
Business Standards © 2010. Editorial produced by Caspian Publishing in association with The British Standards Institution. Editorial opinions expressed on are not necessarily those of BSI Group or Caspian Publishing. Neither Caspian Publishing nor BSI Group accept responsibility for advertising or editorial content, nor for that appearing on linked third-party websites. Reproduction in whole or in part is forbidden without written permission from BSI Group or Caspian Publishing.
While there was a time when companies would never consider working alongside the competition, today's marketplace demands a more flexible approach. Collaboration is fast becoming par for the course. For example, large government contracts often require expertise that goes far beyond any one company's capacity to deliver. Forming a consortium brings together the right experience in the right place, and it can mean the difference between winning or losing a tender.
A little bit extra for Kitemark® bodyshops and garages
It's all well and good for an automotive bodyshop to earn the Thatcham BSI Kitemark® for Vehicle Body Repair, but it won't have as much impact if potential clients don't know about it. As a consequence, BSI decided to offer an Extras marketing toolkit to bodyshops and garages that have earned the Kitemark.
Airbus in the UK has achieved certification to BS 25999, the Business Continuity Management (BCM) standard, following an audit from BSI. The certification covers Airbus? wing manufacturing site in Broughton, North Wales and becomes the first aerospace manufacturing company to receive certification to this standard by BSI.
OCS, an international facilities services group based in the UK, has achieved triple certification to ISO 9001 Quality management, ISO 14001 Environmental management/ and BS OHSAS 18001 Health and safety management with BSI.
A clear case for carbon neutrality
"Carbon neutral" sounds good on paper, but what does it really mean? Organizations are making claims about carbon neutrality for everything from products to travel, events, projects and buildings. The problem is that no one quite agrees what "carbon neutral" means or how far it extends.
Question: Are health and safety issues at risk of being lost in the current financial turmoil?
When business isn't going well - whether it's due to a recession or simply because a company is going through a slow patch - there is a temptation to cut costs by cutting corners. Instead of treating an issue like product and consumer safety as vital to a organization's growth and reputation, it can become just another expense or regulatory requirement.
Have a standards-related question for BSI or a comment on the website? We'll find the right person to answer.
